Summer in a War Zone: Life Goes On

August 13, 2006


Tel Aviv--The rhetoric here about the UN cease fire, approved by the
Israeli cabinet Sunday and which went into effect 8 a.m. local time today [Monday],
is typically broad ranging. The Prime Minister's office
pronounced itself "satisfied" with the accord because it met
Israel's "essential demands." Hardly a ringing endorsement!

Others called it an "unmitigated disaster which represents a
near total victory for Hizbullah...and Iran and Syria."
Opposition Members of the Knesset said Prime Minister Olmert
"is not fit to stay in power, he won't last one day longer."

In my informal poll of a dozen Israelis today, there is one
thing on which nearly everyone agrees: this cease fire does
not mean peace. It means only a temporary cessation of
hostilities. Hizbullah has survived and has been emboldened by the events
of the last weeks. Israel will continue to face threats to its existence from
Hizbullah, armed by Syria and Iran, whatever the UN resolution says, most Israelis believe.

I have actually read the entire text of the UN accord. Like many intensely negotiated documents, it contains both ambiguities and outright contradictions. For instance, Operating Paragraph (OP) 11 makes any action by the new UN force dependent on the Lebanese government asking for help. Yet OP 12 says the force can take "all necessary action" to fulfill its mission. The central question
as this plays out is "Who's in charge here?"

I tend to agree with long-time Arab observer Barry Rubin who wrote in Sunday's Jerusalem Post, "The question is whether the cease fire will work well enough to be minimally acceptable."

In other words, the only way anyone will know the value of the UN agreement is by scrutinizing its implementation: who will command the UN force and what will its rules of engagement be?
If the UN force aggressively interprets its mandate, there may be some years of quiet (which is all anyone expects). If the new UN force is as weak as the past one was, the whole cease fire could collapse.

Israel grieves deeply today for the 24 IDF soldiers killed and the dozens injured during Saturday's fighting. I grieve for them, and for the innocent Lebanese and Israeli civilians caught up in a war which seems to have limped to such an uncertain ending.

Lost amid all the focus on Lebanon was this small, hopeful story: In response to a request from the Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas has stopped firing Qassam rockets from the Gaza strip into Israel. Haniyeh's demand for the end to the rocket fire was reportedly made, in part, in response to public pressure demanding that rocket launcher operators stop firing rockets from in between houses (they actually made their feelings know by threatening the families of the operators).

Good for Hamas. This is precisely how democracies are supposed to function, with leaders implementing the desires of the public. If those desires continue to translate into actions to diminish conflict with Israel, there is no reason why the US and Israel should not begin negotiations with Hamas leaders, who are, after all, the democratically elected leaders of Palestine. Amoing many others, I believe that until the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is transformed, there is little chance for a wider peace in the region. But that's another story.